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superforecaster

noun

Etymology

From super + forecaster.

  1. inherited from forecast
  2. inherited from forecasten
  3. formed as forecaster — “forecast + -er”
  4. compounded as superforecaster — “super + forecaster”

Definitions

  1. One who consistently makes predictions at significantly better than chance accuracy.

    • On average, when a forecaster did well enough in year 1 to become a superforecaster, and was put on a superforecaster team in year 2, that person became 50% more accurate.
    • The superforecasters turned out to outperform the other contestants by a substantial margin in the second and third years of the tournament, that is, they were not just lucky.

The neighborhood

Vish — recursive loop

No curated loop yet for superforecaster. Loops are being traced one word at a time while the ingestion pipeline matures.

sense glosses and etymology drawn from English Wiktionary · source · CC-BY-SA